Model predicts coronavirus will peak in Delaware in mid-April

DOVER — A model on the coronavirus spread has the outbreak peaking in Delaware in mid-April and causing 240 deaths by August.

Produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle, the projections have been cited by White House health officials as some of the best available.

The model predicts COVID-9 will have the biggest impact here from about April 13 to 23. During that time, deaths could rise to eight a day and the number of beds needed could eclipse those available in state hospitals.

On the peak day of April 18, according to the forecast, 754 beds will be needed — 58 more than available. The 1116 intensive care beds the model says could be needed that day is nearly triple the 41 it says are available.

The study used data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from government agencies, hospitals and other sources to predict how the next four months could play out.

It does include a range, suggesting the death total for Delaware could be anywhere from 125 or 480 come August.

Nationally, the mode says there will most likely be almost 84,000 deaths in the United States by the start of August, although the growth rate essentially becomes flat by early June. It predicts deaths will peak on April 15 with slightly more than 2,200 that day.

The Associated Press reported the model is first state-by-state outlook for the upcoming months that adjusts for changing situations and how different locations handle it. For instance, the model predicts the virus will peak about a month earlier in New York than it will in Texas.

It is intended to help officials and hospitals prepare for what may come, chiefly how many beds they will need.


Helpful Coronavirus links

Delaware Division of Health Coronavirus Page
CDC: About the Coronavirus Disease 2019
CDC: What to do if You Are Sick
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
AP News Coronavirus Coverage
Reopening Delaware: Resources for Businesses
Delaware Phase 2 guidance

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